I have a theory about hurricanes and their prediction models. My theory is that on the first few model runs of a newly forming storm you want to be located dead center of all the spaghetti lines and prediction cones. I mean, right smack-dab in its path because the forecast is guaranteed to change. Just my little theory I’ve held for years.

We’ve, as our previous post stated, had our eyes on a clump of clouds coming of Africa for days now and the models are just now starting to be run on what is now Invest97L.  I had the extremely rare experience of having unlimited and fast wifi on the boat last night and instead of catching up with friends, I spent WAY too much time looking at all the weather models I could find.  I couldn’t help it, they hold your attention when they run a path right smack-dab over you. Now, granted, I do understand their limitations and know that they cannot accurately predict where it is going at this point-and certainly not nine days out.  Honestly it could end up anywhere from Central America to Canada at this point- or not even form into anything at all to begin with.  Although, unfortunately the data seems to be in overwhelming agreement that this will be a storm and a large percentage of the data is suggesting that it will become a Major hurricane (Cat 3+).  Maybe this isn’t the best time to test out my theory.

Since before getting over here we’ve been working out our plan of action in case of a storm. No matter which way we looked at it we couldn’t get comfy with the idea of Black Sound, the moorings or up in the mangroves. Just weren’t feeling it. A back up plan has always been to head back to Florida but we knew we could never count on having decent weather to do so.  Last night I started looking at the forecast for crossing back over the Gulfstream and it looked great for the next few days.  Hmmm.  This morning our weatherman Chris Parker didn’t dispute what I saw the night before.  In fact, while he suggested it may go anywhere from the Western Caribbean to Bermuda, he thought the most probable current path would be through part or all of the Bahamas.  Well, there you have it-guess we are going to Florida.  That decision was painless.  

We spent the rest of the morning getting in one last quick dive and said a quick see-ya-later to a few locals. (They think we are pretty crazy for running away from a might-become-a-storm that is is closer to Venzuela than here but oh well).  We really could have waited a few days to see how this whole thing plays out, but by then the calm crossing window may have closed. As I write this the sun just slipped into the ocean. The wind is under 10k and it is perfectly flat on the bank.  We feel very comfortable (for the first time in days) with our choice.  It’s most likely unnecessary and of course Florida could be just as likely to be hit, but we have a hidey hole there that we are more comfortable with.  So there it is, see you on the other side! 



One thought on “Theory

  1. Very wise and intuitive to trust your instinct. Glad to know you will be in safe harbor. Had been worried about you.

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